Miami Heat

Miami Heat Mid-Season Review

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(Torrey Purvey/Icon Sportswire)

The Miami Heat have officially reached the halfway point of their season, sitting with a perfectly decent 23-18 record — good for fifth in the East. The season has been a rollercoaster ride filled with crazy come-from-behind wins (HOU, IND, DEN) and some inexplicable losses (MIN, BKN, 2nd DET game).

With 41 games in the book, the sample size is large enough to break down some of Miami’s strengths and weaknesses on both ends of the floor.

OFFENSE:

  • ORtg: 102.0 - 17th
  • 96.4 ppg - 26th
  • 46.1% FG - 6th
  • 33.1% 3PT - 25th
  • 43.2 RPG - 18th
  • OREB: 9.0 - 28th
  • APG: 20.1 - 26th
  • TPG: 20.4 - 26th
  • Pace: 94.5 - 17th

Miami’s offense is disappointing because, from a talent standpoint, they shouldn’t have much issue putting points on the board.

In a vacuum, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Goran Dragic and Gerald Green can score 20-30 points on any given night. Tyler Johnson can get his in pick-and-roll or by spotting up, and Hassan Whiteside and Amar’e Stoudemire are both stout pick-and-roll bigs.

The issue is that most of these guys just don’t fit well together. The roster is pretty darn flawed.

Their highest usage player (Wade) can’t shoot and doesn’t necessarily LIKE to play up-tempo, although he’s proven he can still do so in spurts. He likes to hold the ball, survey the defense, and then attack. When he’s going, it can be a beautiful thing:

When he doesn’t have it going, it just further stagnates Miami’s offense.

That makes maximizing Dragic difficult because Dragic needs the ball and likes to run. And with limited spacing, that pretty much sticks Luol Deng in the corner and wastes his ability as a cutter because there’s no real room to do so.

Further compounding that issue is Whiteside, who, despite his talent, doesn’t consistently roll to the basket hard and clogs the lane when he demands the ball on the block — most of the time without establishing deep position.

The starting lineup is awkward, and that’s why, despite their individual talent, their net rating is a measly +0.8 per 100 possessions.

There really isn’t much Miami can do to alleviate their shooting woes either, which really caps their potential. The best tweak I could come up with would be to bring Wade off the bench as a high-minute sixth man who would still close out games, but we all know Wade isn’t willingly taking a bench role.

When the ball is moving and guys are moving off-ball, Miami offense still hums. What they lack in shooting, they make up in overall basketball IQ. More often than not, defenses are sagging off the non-shooters Miami has on the floor, which further mucks up space.

Because of that, the offense can, and does, get stagnant at times and the results are ugly. In today’s NBA, there’s only so much you can do without being a threat from the perimeter. Miami does well by trying to limit possessions, simply because they can’t afford to get into track meets with other teams.

DEFENSE:

  • Opp. ppg: 95.5 - 2nd
  • DRtg: 99.7 - 5th
  • SPG: 6.4 - T-27th
  • BPG: 6.9 - 1st
  • Opp. FG%: 43 2% - 6th
  • Opp. 3pt%: 32.5% - 5th

Defense has been Miami’s calling card, led by the human eraser himself, Hassan Whiteside:

Whiteside’s defensive impact doesn’t necessarily match his gaudy block numbers because he doesn’t defend well in space and is susceptible to pump fakes, but his ability as a rim protector, paired with an aggressive perimeter defense and a system tweak from Erik Spoelstra has led to Miami defending at an elite level.

In years past, the Heat were an aggressive, opportunistic defense that blitzed pick-and-rolls and relied on crisp and frenetic rotations to shut down offenses. They don’t blitz as much, saving that mostly for lineups that include Bosh at center. The bigs drop in pick-and-roll coverage, which helps them protect the rim while also encouraging mid-range looks from the opposition.

Rookie Justise Winslow has been Miami’s best perimeter defender by a solid margin:

Deng has been good, although he’s had more issues with quicker wings than in years past. Dragic has been surprisingly decent, although he’s fouled way too many jump shooters so far this year.

Wade and Johnson have made their fair share of plays, but neither of them have really been plus defenders. Johnson is one of those guys who plays with so much energy, they seem to be everywhere. That isn’t always a good thing, as Johnson has had his issues defending the pick-and-roll.

Wade’s issues come mostly from effort and focus. He likes to roam, and still racks up steals and the occasional block when floating around off the ball. However, he’s been caught ball-watching plenty of times, and you never really know if he’s going to get back in transition.

Overall, Miami has done a great job of running guys off the three-point line and funneling them to the bigs. Whiteside has been swatting shots left and right, and Bosh’s defensive versatility has been on display all year.

I certainly didn’t anticipate Miami having an elite defense, but they rank highly in virtually every defensive stat that matters, which is a testament to the players buying in and some pretty sound coaching.

SPEAKING OF WHICH…

COACHING:

I wanted to touch on this anyway, but I especially added this section juuust for you, Heat Twitter. This will probably end up more of a rant than an actual analysis of Erik Spoelstra, but sometimes you just need a good rant to drive a point home.

Spo is a darn good coach, and has proven so throughout this year. For the most part, I love the plays he runs, and he doesn’t mind getting creative with lineups (more on that coming soon):

If there is a criticism to be made about Spo, it’s that he has had a tendency to leave in a bad lineup too long (told ya). But even then, the flak Spo catches on Twitter about his lineups are bit unfair without context.

As mentioned earlier, the roster is already flawed. It’s hard to find many lineup combinations that fit together stylistically, and it’s, even more, difficult to do so when rotation players are out.

The health issue has been extreme on this Trip of Death because of Wade’s shoulders, Whiteside’s knee, Dragic’s calf, Tyler Johnson’s shoulder, and even injuries to Beno Udrih and Gerald Green have hindered them as of late.

Also, Josh McRoberts has been missed. Sure, his shot tendency is a -37 (for my 2K gamers out there), but he’s a solid defender and screener, at least, poses some semblance of a perimeter threat, and keeps the ball moving with superb passing ability. McRoberts missing time has opened up minutes for Winslow as a backup 4, but his size and rare combination of skills is missed, and that has ultimately (further) thrown off the rotation.

Spo isn’t perfect, and only God knows why the Heat only play one good third quarter a week. But all things considered, he’s done a very good job with a flawed roster that has lately been shredded with injuries.

Cut the man some slack and stop trying to fire him. I mean, Miami could have Byron Scott right now. Count your blessings.

VERDICT:

The Heat aren’t as good as people projected them to be, which is fine. It’s also important not to overreact to Miami’s recent slump.

Everybody and their mothers knew that January was going to be a rough month, and the injury bug starting to hit certainly hasn’t helped matters.

With that being said, the Heat have a limited ceiling with the way their current roster is constructed. Barring a move by the trade deadline, this is what Miami is going to roll with, and there just might not be much room for improvement.

The Heat are an above average team that has enough star power to matchup with anyone outside of the Warriors, Spurs, and Cavs. But because of their shooting, it’s hard to see the Heat being serious contenders.

Their absolute ceiling seems to be an Eastern Conference Finals appearance, but more than likely, this is a team that will bow out in the second round of the playoffs.

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