At age 30, Paul Millsap is having one of the best seasons of his career.
He’s averaging career highs in points, assists and steals and has plenty of other skills that don’t always show up on the stat line.
His versatility is well-documented, and he is the engine that makes the offense run.
Take this play for example. (per Youtube)
The play ends with a Kent Bazemore three, but it starts with the leverage Millsap creates off the dribble. Atlanta’s offense relies on using one player’s advantage to get an open look off a scrambling defense, and the team’s patience is a testament to Mike Budenholzer’s creativity.
But this often means these types of plays, where Millsap is the most important man, but he gets no credit on the scoresheet. Perhaps this is why he looks better in the advanced numbers, with RPM placing him 7th in the league and Player Efficiency Rating ranking him 15th.
Millsap may not be able to do everything as well as Draymond Green, but he might be the closest match to Green’s unique skillset in the league right now. He’s a versatile defender and great facilitator from the power forward position, all while defending his position well despite being undersized. Green’s on another level as a defender and shooter, but Millsap offers a lot of the same qualities.
This is why Atlanta needs Millsap to be at his best in the postseason. He hasn’t been in recent seasons, as his efficiency has been significantly worse in his last three playoff campaigns compared to the regular season. His shooting percentages have gone down at least 7 percent from the regular season to the postseason in each of those years, per Basketball-Reference.
There’s no reason for Millsap’s postseason decline that isn’t fixable. He has settled for too many jump shots in the playoffs, not working quite as hard to leverage his speed for a power forward. And his team’s inability to move the ball has hurt his ability to get quality looks. To be fair, he’s dealt with a shoulder sprain throughout last postseason, and it seemed to bother him quite a bit.
Whatever the reason for the decline in the postseason, Atlanta cannot afford it this year if the team wants to make a postseason run. Losing DeMarre Carroll was a big blow to a team that is now without a true wing stopper on defense. The defensive brilliance of Millsap and Al Horford has helped the team stay afloat on that end, as Atlanta is currently 11th in defensive efficiency.
But there are going to be games in the postseason where Atlanta’s lack of elite defense on the wings hurts them. And while Kent Bazemore has done a great job filling in for Carroll offensively, Kyle Korver’s struggles so far this season make Atlanta less daunting on that end as well.
This means Millsap’s responsibilities on both ends will go up in the playoffs. For as much as Atlanta has a team-oriented approach, the team won’t make any noise in the postseason without him as least maintaining his outstanding play from the regular season.
Looking ahead, Millsap can cause headaches for most possible playoff opponents. Kevin Love will have trouble matching his speed, and a dominant run by Millsap could force David Blatt to use more Tristan Thompson. Taj Gibson is an excellent defender, but even he has been bothered by his quickness at times. Toronto’s power forwards are no match for him defensively, either.
But all of this is pointless if Millsap struggles once more in the postseason. Last year, Atlanta had enough firepower to make the conference finals with Millsap not at his best. This season, he will have to play like the superstar he is for Atlanta to make another postseason run.