In Tom Haberstroh’s excellent piece on the detrimental effects of the NBA schedule, he discussed, among other things, how players dunk much less in the fourth quarter than the first quarter. As they tire, the internal risk vs. reward analysis skews away from expending the energy to throw one down for two points. We can extrapolate that idea over the course of a player’s career. As the NBA mileage starts piling up and Father Time makes himself more and more known, players’ games gravitate away from the paint and out toward the three-point line. Many players eventually extend their careers by essentially becoming three-point specialists; Vince Carter may be the best, recent example of this shift.
While we find ourselves in the throes of All-Star Weekend, it’s worth noting that a microcosm of this phenomenon can be seen during two of its cornerstone events: the Slam Dunk and Three-Point Contests. I went back the past 10 years and noted key data about the participants in each event (the full appendices can be found at the bottom of this article). Although people always think of the Slam Dunk and Three-Point Contests as going hand-in-hand, you’re really seeing players at vastly different stages of their NBA careers.
Age
Each player’s age is based upon what Basketball-Reference slots him in as for that particular season.
The average dunk contest participant (hereafter, referred to a “dunker”) is around 22 years old. In the past 10 years, the winner hasn’t been over 25; James White at 30 years of age was the lone dunker beyond his 20s. On the other hand, while you have the occasional 19-year-old like Devin Booker firing up money balls this year, the average age of a three-point contest participant (hereafter, a “shooter”) is just over 26 years of age. There’s been at least one 30-year-old-plus shooter in each of the last 10 years; but, just try and imagine a 35-year-old like Ray Allen trying to participate in the dunk contest. I know He Got Game, but no one wants to see that.
Back in 2012, LeBron James summed up the difference in a statement to the Cleveland Sporting News about possibly entering the dunk contest:
“It’s over with. I’m getting too old for that. … There were times when I wanted to do it. But I came into All-Star Weekend a few times banged up and I didn’t want to risk further injury.”
Of relevance, LeBron was just 27 when he made that statement.
The Dunk Contest relies mainly on raw, athletic ability, while three-point shooting is in large part a refined skill. Canning triples is something players generally improve upon during their NBA careers, as they work with some of the best shooting instructors in the world, and it’s literally their job to spend hundreds of hours practicing in the gym. Thus, it makes sense that dunkers are mainly young guys who haven’t had the thought of injury yet enter their minds, whereas shooters are those who’ve perfected their craft after years of work.
Translation to In-Game Performance
Dunk totals and three-point percentages referenced to here are as of the end of that particular season.
The Slam Dunk Contest has practically no relation to what goes on during games. Nate Robinson famously participated in 2007 despite having just one dunk on the season. Even discounting Nate-Rob, there were plenty of players who only dunked maybe once every three games. Taking part in the Dunk Contest has always been based mainly upon reputation, word of mouth and dunk highlights from past exhibitions and pro-ams. Former dunk contest champion Dwight Howard touched on the difference in a 2014 interview with the Houston Chronicle:
“A lot of people see guys dunk in games and say they should do the dunk contest because they dunk in games. It’s a different atmosphere. In games, you have the adrenaline going. You have your teammates out there. Everybody’s out there playing. You’re going up and down. In the dunk contest, it’s just you, the basketball and the rim. It’s a different situation. You have to build your own adrenaline. You have to get yourself going. It’s tough. Not a lot of people are dunk-contest dunkers. It doesn’t matter if you’re an elite player or not, the dunk contest is a different animal.”
Once again, the evidence shows that the three-point competition is completely different. Aside from a rarity like when Daequan Cook was there to defend his title in 2010, despite shooting just 31.7 percent on the season, the vast majority of shooters average just over 40 percent during that particular season. The Three-Point Contest might also be an exhibition, but we’ve seen these players display that particular skill time and again when it actually matters.
Team Winning Percentage
Winning percentage utilized here is for the team each player played with at the beginning of the season (in instances where he was later traded). The winning percentage is for that team’s record at the end of the season (aside from this year where current records are used). Ideally, you would use the team record heading into the All-Star break, but that data wasn’t easily accessible.
We see a considerable difference in the quality of team each group of participants comes from over the year. The dunker’s average team is around .500, while the average shooter’s team wins just under 60 percent of their games. (Brief aside: it’s worth mentioning that you might think the Splash Brothers participating the last two years coming from a historically great Golden State team might affect the findings, but it’s a large enough sample that removing them from the equation doesn’t move the average by more than one percentage point).
I believe the difference in winning percentage actually ties back to each of the first two points. The dunkers are younger players, so it would make sense for them to be on worse teams. It fits the perceived cycle of a NBA franchise climbing back to relevance: team is bad, team gets high draft pick, young draft pick participates in Dunk Contest, team gets better a few years down the line, by which time the player is no longer interested in participating in Dunk Contest. Furthermore, the fact that three-point shooting translates more from in-game performance plays more of a factor in winning basketball games. In a vacuum, elite three-point shooters help a team win games more than uber-athletic dunkers, because that’s a more directly translatable skill.
When you’re sitting down this Saturday night to enjoy the All-Star festivities, maybe now it’ll register that 20-year-old Zach LaVine is flying through the air while coming from a 17-37 Timberwolves team, and 31-year-old J.J. Redick is hoisting threes while representing a 35-18 Clippers squad. More importantly, though, all of these guys are among the best in the world at what they do, and All-Star Weekend is a fun celebration of that fact, regardless of what stage of his career each player finds himself in.