The All-Star break is upon us, giving fantasy basketball owners the perfect opportunity to assess their roster as they gear up for the postseason. Though your league’s playoffs may not begin for another few weeks, it’s never too early to begin strategizing by maximizing your roster’s strengths and examining the fatal flaws of potential opponents.
A brutal week of injuries may have many owners in your leagues scrambling, and next week’s trade deadline figures only to further shake things up. This is the time of year where you must remain hyper-vigilant to ensure a long playoff run, as players’ values are wont to soar and plummet at a moment’s notice. Until trades begin to wreak havoc upon player values, though, you can only focus on what’s happened in recent weeks.
Here, we’ll highlight three players who’ve caught fire of late and three players whose fantasy stock is plummeting. You shouldn’t necessarily sell high on the rising players or buy low on the falling players; instead, use this to recalibrate your expectations for all of them moving forward.
Rising
Gorgui Dieng, PF/C, Minnesota Timberwolves
Though it was about three months overdue, Minnesota Timberwolves interim head coach Sam Mitchell has finally relented, placing Gorgui Dieng alongside Karl-Anthony Towns in the team’s starting lineup. Mitchell remained steadfast earlier this season in refusing to play the two together for long stretches, but with Kevin Garnett and Nikola Pekovic both banged up, he’s had little choice in the matter as of late.
Since moving into the starting lineup, Dieng has been an absolute monster, averaging 16.9 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 0.8 steals and 0.6 blocks in 35.7 minutes per game over Minnesota’s past eight tilts. That’s good for top 40 value over the past 15 days, according to ESPN’s Player Rater. Fantasy owners can only hope Mitchell doesn’t move Dieng back to the bench once KG and Pekovic are healthy enough to return, as he’s finally living up to his mid-round ADP after a disappointing first few months.
Zach Randolph, PF/C, Memphis Grizzlies
With Marc Gasol almost certainly done for the season, Zach Randolph suddenly has a new lease on his fantasy life. While it’s too early to definitively state what the Gasol-less Grizzlies will look like, Randolph will almost assuredly become a focal point offensively, giving him an increased fantasy outlook from this point forward.
In the game against Portland on Monday where Gasol left early, Z-Bo went off for 26 points on 12-of-19 hooting, nine rebounds and four assists, and he followed that up with 15 points, six assists, three rebounds, three steals and a block in 27 minutes against the Brooklyn Nets on Wednesday. The buy-low window has slammed shut on Randolph in the wake of Gasol’s injury, but if you’re able to flip a non-top 50 player for him — say, Ryan Anderson or Tobias Harris? — it’s a move worth making.
Julius Randle, PF, Los Angeles Lakers
Julius Randle may have Wally Pipped Larry Nance Jr. The Kentucky product initially lost his starting gig to Nance in early December, which sent his fantasy value into a tailspin, but nagging right knee soreness has kept Nance parked on the sidelines for much of the past few weeks. Randle, sensing the opportunity to seize the starting 4 gig with authority, has responded with the best stretch of his young career.
Since moving back into the starting lineup on Jan. 17, Randle has averaged 12.8 points on 45.8 percent shooting, 11.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 0.5 blocks in 30.3 minutes a night. He won’t provide much help with defensive stats or three-pointers — he knocked down just two over that 13-game stretch — but owners in need of help in rebounds should sniff around and see if he’s available, particularly if Lakers head coach Byron Scott starts screwing with his minutes once Nance returns.
Falling
Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Milwaukee Bucks
It’s rare to find cases where a player losing his starting gig winds up being a net positive for his fantasy value. Memphis forward Jeff Green, for example, is one of the rare exceptions to that rule. The same can’t be said about Milwaukee point guard Michael Carter-Williams, who moved to the bench for each of the Bucks’ final two games prior to the All-Star break and averaged 10.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.0 steals in 23 minutes a night.
Bucks head coach Jason Kidd did this dance once before with MCW, benching him for 10 games earlier in the season, and his fantasy value likewise plunged until he regained his spot in the starting lineup. With trade rumors swirling around the 24-year-old floor general, anyone who owns him should rightfully feel skittish about his rest-of-season prospects at the moment.
Wesley Matthews, SG/SF, Dallas Mavericks
On one hand, the fact Wes Matthews is playing at all this season after rupturing his left Achilles tendon last March earns him some much-deserved praise. On the other…well, fantasy owners who invested a late-round pick in the Dallas Mavericks swingman haven’t been getting much bang for their buck lately, as he averaged just 9.0 points on 35.6 percent shooting, 2.5 assists, 1.7 rebounds and 1.5 triples in 33.6 minutes a night in the 10 games leading up to the All-Star break.
Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle opted to play Raymond Felton rather than Matthews in crunch time against Memphis and Utah this past week, leading him to voice his frustration after the game, per ESPN.com’s Tim MacMahon. “I’ve always been especially a crunch-time player, so I don’t know,” he said. “It is what it is. I control what I can control.” There’s no sense selling Matthews now, as he’d generate just pennies on the dollar in return, so owners can only hope the All-Star break helps him recuperate and regain his early-season form.
Tony Parker, PG, San Antonio Spurs
Another week, another injured Spurs player making an appearance in the “Falling” section of this column. Last week, Tim Duncan had the distinction, while starting point guard Tony Parker earns it this time around. The 33-year-old Frenchman sat out Wednesday’s two-point win over Orlando after tweaking his ankle against Miami the previous night, which made total sense — why risk him aggravating the injury when he’s on the precipice of an entire week off? Even when healthy, though, Parker hasn’t exactly been lighting the fantasy world on fire lately.
Over his past 10 games, Parker averaged just 8.0 points on 43.2 percent shooting, 5.0 assists, 2.5 rebounds and 0.7 steals in 24.6 minutes a night, all but three of which were double-digit victories. Therein lies the risk with any older Spurs player: The combination of frequent blowout wins and Gregg Popovich beginning to limit minutes with an eye on the postseason will make Parker and Duncan into rest-of-season headaches for fantasy owners. If you can get a top 100 player in return for him based on name recognition alone — Robert Covington, perhaps? — do so ASAP.
Bye Bye, Li’l Sebastian (players who should be dropped)
Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies
Tyreke Evans, PG/SG/SF, New Orleans Pelicans
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF/PF, Charlotte Hornets
All ADP and ECR info via FantasyPros.com. All player rankings via ESPN’s Player Rater and are current through Thursday, Feb. 11.