Fantasy Basketball

DFS NBA: DraftKings Tip Sheet 3/19

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Games to Target

Oklahoma City at Indiana (Over/Under 210.5): I love this spot for Russell Westbrook, and that alone pushes this game into target territory for me. I’ll likely avoid Kevin Durant against Paul George, but the latter is in play along with Monta Ellis, who finally seems to be gaining some traction with his new club. On a night of potential blowouts and lower over-under totals, this is a game that I feel fairly confident in being both competitive and high scoring.

Golden State at San Antonio (O/U 217.5): I don’t have a read on this matchup outside of Stephen Curry crushing Tony Parker, but you need to have a piece of this game. Even if you can’t get up to Curry – it’s close between him and Westbrook – guys like Draymond Green and Klay Thompson should be on your radar. Kawhi Leonard is my favorite guy on the Spurs, but I have a suspicion that Tim Duncan will make a mark on this game after missing the first matchup of these teams. Regardless, this is a historic matchup, and you want some exposure for rooting interest if nothing else.

News and Notes

  • Kenneth Faried (back) is doubtful. The team wants to be cautious with him, and will probably opt to rest him at the slightest bit of discomfort. Darrell Arthur should start for the Nuggets, but they have so many big guys that it’s tough to love any of them outside of Nikola Jokic.
  • Cody Zeller (knee) and Spencer Hawes (back) are questionable. With Zeller, Al Jefferson, Frank Kaminsky and now Hawes back in the mix, this is a position to avoid. If both Zeller and Hawes are unavailable, Al Jefferson could have upside at a discounted price.
  • Ian Mahinmi (back) hopes to play against the Thunder. Jordan Hill was solid in his place, and I wouldn’t mind going back to that well if Mahinmi was ultimately ruled out.
  • The Knicks have officially signed Tony Wroten, but he won’t play for the team this year. It doesn’t make a ton of sense to me, either.
  • Gordon Hayward (foot) is still in pain, and is listed as questionable. Plantar fasciitis is a lingering injury if not taken care of, so expect the Jazz to keep him out until the pain subsides. Shelvin Mack is in another great matchup, and Rodney Hood should have something of a bounce-back game despite the presence of Jimmy Butler.
  • E’Twaun Moore (hamstring) is out a week. Expect some combination of Justin Holiday and Aaron Brooks to absorb his bench duties.
  • Vince Carter (calf) and Zach Randolph (knee) are questionable. The Grizzlies went so far as to start Lance Stephenson at point guard last game, so that is how things are going in Memphis. I like Stephenson, but taking the Grizzlies value in what should be a blowout is going to be difficult for me to do.
  • Andrew Bogut (toe) is doubtful to take on San Antonio. James McAdoo started the second half in place of Bogut, but it’s up in the air with regards to their strategy against the Spurs.

Point Guard

Stud to Target

Russell Westbrook, OKC ($10,500): Westbrook is always in play, and I love the spot for him with Paul George checking Kevin Durant. The decision at the top of point guard is extremely close between Russ and Stephen Curry, but I lean Westbrook because of the constant threat of a triple-double and the bonus that DraftKings rewards for that achievement. But, would you really be surprised if Steph Curry did something special in San Antonio tonight on the prime time stage? Go with either guy and you should be fine.

Others to consider: Stephen Curry, GS ($10,300) – Kemba Walker, CHA ($8,700)

Value Play

George Hill, IND ($4,300): Derrick Rose is also quite underpriced at $5.5K, but I love the salary on Hill at $4.3K. At this price point, the Pacers point guard would only need to hit about 20 DK points, which should be a given in this fast-paced game in which he’s likely to see 30-35 minutes.

Shooting Guard

Stud to Target

Dwyane Wade, MIA ($6,700): Right now, I prefer Wade to Klay Thompson at the same price. Both guys are playing in huge conference games, but there’s always something extra about a Wade-LeBron matchup, and you have to think that Wade is going to bring it for this one if his body will let him. His usage rate is massive, and I want some exposure to this game with both teams looking to push the pace a bit more.

Others to consider: Monta Ellis, IND ($6,000) – Klay Thompson, GS ($6,700)

Value Play

Gary Harris, DEN ($5,000): Harris has become Mr. Consistency at shooting guard, with his last DK score of fewer than 20 coming a month ago. In that contest he played only 24 minutes, which is a far cry from the guaranteed 30+ we’ve been seeing from him. He’s never a priority piece, but if you build a roster you like, he’s a great glue guy that should give you exactly what you expect.

Small Forward

Stud to Target

Kawhi Leonard, SA ($8,300):

Others to consider: Carmelo Anthony, NY ($8,400) – LeBron James, CLE ($9,300)

Value Play

Sergey Karasev, BKN ($3,100): If Karasev draws the start, he’s worth consideration as a cheap small forward. If he doesn’t, I have zero interest in playing him whatsoever. He played 31 minutes – and scored 24 DK points – in his last start, and it’d make some sense for the Nets to see what they have in him. With a bunch of underpriced studs at the position I almost certainly will be paying up at small forward, but I have to mention a guy near minimum price that could be in line for such a large workload.

Power Forward

Stud to Target

Draymond Green, GS ($7,700): Green’s price keeps falling despite consistently being up around 35 DK points as of late. The matchup with the Spurs isn’t great on paper, but this is the type of game I love to target Draymond in. He’s a competitor, and he should see plenty of time matched up against LaMarcus Aldridge – a matchup he should be able to exploit offensively.

Others to consider: LaMarcus Aldridge, SA ($7,300) – Marvin Williams, CHA ($5,800)

Value Play

Markieff Morris, WAS ($4,800): This is more an indictment of the value at power forward than it is an endorsement of Morris’ prospects. He is, however, the cheap power forward I’d be willing to roll the dice on should the situation fit my roster construction. His upside is in the 30 DK point range, especially in this matchup, but the minutes are always fluctuating.


Stud to Target

Dwight Howard, HOU ($7,500): There are quite a few interesting plays at the top of center tonight, though none of them really stick out to me. Howard against a team that he’s traditionally played well against, at a decent price, is the way that I’ll go if I pay up at the position. Andre Drummond will be the other guy who will factor in, considering his awesome matchup against the Nets at home.

Others to consider: Brook Lopez, BKN ($7,800) – Andre Drummond, DET ($8,000)

Value Play

Tim Duncan, SA ($4,300): The key difference between GS-SA I and GS-SA II is that the Warriors will be without Andrew Bogut while the Spurs will trot out Tim Duncan for the first time. Even in his advanced age, Duncan is a difference-maker on the court.

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